Player breakdown
Justin Joly
North Carolina State · 2026 Draft Class
6-4241 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~22
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
15%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Connecticut | Ind | 12 | 18 | 250 | 2 | 13.9 | 20.8 |
| 2023 | Connecticut | Ind | 12 | 56 | 578 | 2 | 10.3 | 48.2 |
| 2024 | North Carolina State | ACC | 13 | 43 | 661 | 4 | 15.4 | 50.8 |
| 2025 | North Carolina State | ACC | 12 | 49 | 489 | 7 | 10 | 40.8 |
| Career | 49 | 166 | 1,978 | 15 | 11.9 | 40.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
15%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.136
Recruit dominator synergy+0.395
BMI 29.3 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (241 lbs)+0.163
Top Negative Factors
-11.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.714
Improvement accelerating (+1.6) — getting better faster each year-0.403
Accounted for 1.69 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.373