Player breakdown
Kadarius Toney
Florida · 2021 Draft Class
5-11193 lbs1st round, 20th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
8%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | NYG | 10 | 4 | 57 | 39 | 420 | 10.8 | 0 | 42 |
| 2022 | 2TM | 9 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 171 | 10.7 | 2 | 19 |
| 2022 | NYG | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022 | KAN | 7 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 171 | 12.2 | 2 | 24.4 |
| 2023 | KAN | 13 | 2 | 38 | 27 | 169 | 6.3 | 1 | 13 |
| 2024 | CLE | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Career | 44 | 14 | 136 | 98 | 931 | 9.5 | 5 | 21.2 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Florida | SEC | 8 | 15 | 152 | 0 | 10.1 | 19 |
| 2018 | Florida | SEC | 12 | 25 | 260 | 1 | 10.4 | 21.7 |
| 2019 | Florida | SEC | 7 | 10 | 194 | 1 | 19.4 | 27.7 |
| 2020 | Florida | SEC | 11 | 70 | 984 | 10 | 14.1 | 89.5 |
| Career | 38 | 120 | 1,590 | 12 | 13.3 | 41.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
49%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.392
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.88 — elite recruit at elite school+0.219
BMI 26.9 — ideal frame for NFL WR (193 lbs)+0.195
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 1% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.464
-12.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.559
Physical production synergy-0.476