Player breakdown
Keagan Johnson
New Mexico · 2026 Draft Class
6-1180 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~23
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
7%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Iowa | Big Ten | 13 | 18 | 352 | 2 | 19.6 | 27.1 |
| 2022 | Iowa | Big Ten | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| 2023 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 11 | 24 | 227 | 2 | 9.5 | 20.6 |
| 2024 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 11 | 29 | 359 | 1 | 12.4 | 32.6 |
| 2025 | New Mexico | MWC | 12 | 61 | 772 | 3 | 12.7 | 64.3 |
| Career | 49 | 134 | 1,721 | 8 | 12.8 | 35.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
6%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.241
Team averaged 0.0 pass attempts/game — run-heavy offensive system+0.176
BMI 23.8 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (180 lbs)+0.160
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.605
Physical production synergy-0.443
0.25 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.402