Player breakdown
Keith Mumphery
Michigan St. · 2015 Draft Class
6-0215 lbs5th round, 175th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~34
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
38%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | HOU | 16 | 3 | 32 | 14 | 129 | 9.2 | 0 | 8.1 |
| 2016 | HOU | 11 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Career | 27 | 6 | 44 | 24 | 198 | 8.3 | 0 | 7.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 14 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 19.5 | 2.8 |
| 2012 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 13 | 42 | 515 | 1 | 12.3 | 39.6 |
| 2013 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 12 | 18 | 299 | 3 | 16.6 | 24.9 |
| 2014 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 13 | 26 | 495 | 3 | 19 | 38.1 |
| Career | 52 | 88 | 1,348 | 7 | 15.3 | 25.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
0%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
6
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.479
2.8 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.248
BMI 29.2 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (215 lbs)+0.169
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.196
-30.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.593
Improvement accelerating (+12.2) — getting better faster each year-0.444