Player breakdown
Keon Coleman
Florida St. · 2024 Draft Class
6-3213 lbs2nd round, 33rd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~23
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
66%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | BUF | 13 | 12 | 57 | 29 | 556 | 19.2 | 4 | 42.8 |
| 2025 | BUF | 13 | 6 | 59 | 38 | 404 | 10.6 | 4 | 31.1 |
| Career | 26 | 18 | 116 | 67 | 960 | 14.3 | 8 | 36.9 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 10 | 7 | 50 | 1 | 7.1 | 5 |
| 2022 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 12 | 58 | 798 | 7 | 13.8 | 66.5 |
| 2023 | Florida State | ACC | 12 | 50 | 658 | 11 | 13.2 | 54.8 |
| Career | 34 | 115 | 1,506 | 19 | 13.1 | 44.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
46%
ML model output
Context Prob
80%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
5
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 19% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.291
Physical production synergy+0.232
BMI 26.6 — ideal frame for NFL WR (213 lbs)+0.175
Top Negative Factors
-1.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.695
Accounted for 1.60 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.424
Improvement accelerating (+15.0) — getting better faster each year-0.397