Player breakdown
KJ Hamler
Penn St. · 2020 Draft Class
5-9178 lbs2nd round, 46th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~27
EliteDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
84%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | DEN | 13 | 4 | 56 | 30 | 381 | 12.7 | 3 | 29.3 |
| 2021 | DEN | 3 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 74 | 14.8 | 0 | 24.7 |
| 2022 | DEN | 7 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 165 | 23.6 | 0 | 23.6 |
| Career | 23 | 6 | 80 | 42 | 620 | 14.8 | 3 | 27.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 42 | 754 | 5 | 18 | 58 |
| 2019 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 56 | 904 | 8 | 16.1 | 69.5 |
| Career | 26 | 98 | 1,658 | 13 | 16.9 | 63.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
91%
ML model output
Context Prob
42%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 15% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.258
Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.397
BMI 26.3 — ideal frame for NFL WR (178 lbs)+0.232
Top Negative Factors
+11.6 ypg vs. draft class average — above average-0.283
Efficiency composite: 0.64 — average combined efficiency-0.196
Recruit dominator synergy-0.188