Player breakdown
Luke McCaffrey
Rice · 2024 Draft Class
6-2198 lbs3rd round, 100th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~25
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
24%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | WAS | 17 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 168 | 9.3 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 2025 | WAS | 9 | 0 | 15 | 11 | 203 | 18.5 | 3 | 22.6 |
| Career | 26 | 4 | 39 | 29 | 371 | 12.8 | 3 | 14.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 4 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 3 |
| 2020 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.7 |
| 2022 | Rice | CUSA | 11 | 58 | 723 | 6 | 12.5 | 65.7 |
| 2023 | Rice | American | 13 | 71 | 992 | 13 | 14 | 76.3 |
| Career | 35 | 131 | 1,732 | 19 | 13.2 | 49.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
10%
ML model output
Context Prob
51%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.205
BMI 25.4 — ideal frame for NFL WR (198 lbs)+0.177
0.79 TDs/game — dominant red-zone role in college+0.152
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.698
Physical production synergy-0.564
Improvement accelerating (+81.7) — getting better faster each year-0.463