Player breakdown
Luther Burden
Missouri · 2025 Draft Class
6-0206 lbs2nd round, 39th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~22
EliteAll-American x1Did Not Hit
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $2.2M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
81%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | CHI | 15 | 5 | 60 | 47 | 652 | 13.9 | 2 | 43.5 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Missouri | SEC | 13 | 45 | 375 | 6 | 8.3 | 28.8 |
| 2023 | Missouri | SEC | 13 | 86 | 1,212 | 9 | 14.1 | 93.2 |
| 2024 | Missouri | SEC | 12 | 61 | 676 | 6 | 11.1 | 56.3 |
| Career | 38 | 192 | 2,263 | 21 | 11.8 | 59.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
91%
ML model output
Context Prob
75%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
5
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 13% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.198
Physical production synergy+0.532
0.55 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college+0.250
Top Negative Factors
+3.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.692
Recruit dominator synergy-0.260
Efficiency composite: 0.65 — average combined efficiency-0.203