Player breakdown
Malik Nabers
LSU · 2024 Draft Class
6-0200 lbs1st round, 6th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~23
EliteAll-American x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
95%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NYG | 15 | 13 | 170 | 109 | 1,204 | 11 | 7 | 80.3 |
| 2025 | NYG | 4 | 4 | 35 | 18 | 271 | 15.1 | 2 | 67.8 |
| Career | 19 | 17 | 205 | 127 | 1,475 | 11.6 | 9 | 77.6 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | LSU | SEC | 11 | 28 | 417 | 4 | 14.9 | 37.9 |
| 2022 | LSU | SEC | 14 | 72 | 1,017 | 3 | 14.1 | 72.6 |
| 2023 | LSU | SEC | 13 | 89 | 1,569 | 14 | 17.6 | 120.7 |
| Career | 38 | 189 | 3,003 | 21 | 15.9 | 79.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
95%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
4
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 31% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.239
Physical production synergy+0.334
BMI 27.1 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (200 lbs)+0.259
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+2.8) — getting better faster each year-0.353
55.7 yards per adjusted target opportunity — solid efficiency vs. opportunities-0.218
No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.209