Player breakdown
Lynn Bowden Jr.
Kentucky · 2020 Draft Class
5-11204 lbs3rd round, 80th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
16%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | MIA | 10 | 4 | 37 | 28 | 211 | 7.5 | 0 | 21.1 |
| 2023 | NOR | 15 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 83 | 7.5 | 0 | 5.5 |
| Career | 25 | 7 | 53 | 39 | 294 | 7.5 | 0 | 11.8 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Kentucky | SEC | 13 | 17 | 210 | 0 | 12.4 | 16.2 |
| 2018 | Kentucky | SEC | 13 | 67 | 745 | 5 | 11.1 | 57.3 |
| 2019 | Kentucky | SEC | 13 | 30 | 348 | 1 | 11.6 | 26.8 |
| Career | 39 | 114 | 1,303 | 6 | 11.4 | 33.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
12%
ML model output
Context Prob
43%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 23% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.145
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.93 — elite recruit at elite school+0.211
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 1.03x — route-running independent of system+0.192
Top Negative Factors
-22.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.714
0.15 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.444
Improvement accelerating (+2.5) — getting better faster each year-0.441