Player breakdown
Malcolm Kelly
Oklahoma · 2008 Draft Class
6-4224 lbs2nd round, 51st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~39
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
57%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | WAS | 5 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 2009 | WAS | 16 | 10 | 41 | 25 | 347 | 13.9 | 0 | 21.7 |
| Career | 21 | 10 | 52 | 28 | 365 | 13.0 | 0 | 17.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 11 | 33 | 471 | 2 | 14.3 | 42.8 |
| 2006 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 14 | 62 | 993 | 10 | 16 | 70.9 |
| 2007 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 14 | 49 | 821 | 9 | 16.8 | 58.6 |
| Career | 39 | 144 | 2,285 | 21 | 15.9 | 58.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
58%
ML model output
Context Prob
52%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 11% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.184
Physical production synergy+0.475
BMI 27.3 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (224 lbs)+0.233
Top Negative Factors
+1.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.721
Recruit dominator synergy-0.276
Improvement accelerating (+1.1) — getting better faster each year-0.226