Player breakdown
Manuel Johnson
Oklahoma · 2009 Draft Class
5-11189 lbs7th round, 229th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~39
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
34%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | DAL | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 9 | 10 | 170 | 1 | 17 | 18.9 |
| 2006 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 12 | 36 | 378 | 3 | 10.5 | 31.5 |
| 2007 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 14 | 31 | 448 | 4 | 14.5 | 32 |
| 2008 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 13 | 42 | 714 | 9 | 17 | 54.9 |
| Career | 48 | 119 | 1,710 | 17 | 14.4 | 35.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
6%
ML model output
Context Prob
76%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
4
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 11% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.007
Recruit dominator synergy+0.494
BMI 26.4 — ideal frame for NFL WR (189 lbs)+0.182
Top Negative Factors
-18.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.772
Improvement accelerating (+3.2) — getting better faster each year-0.423
Accounted for 1.38 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.404