Player breakdown
Marcus Smith
New Mexico · 2008 Draft Class
6-1221 lbs4th round, 106th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~41
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
14%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | BAL | 7 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | New Mexico | MWC | 12 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 11 | 2.8 |
| 2005 | New Mexico | MWC | 11 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 9.3 | 5.1 |
| 2006 | New Mexico | MWC | 13 | 53 | 859 | 9 | 16.2 | 66.1 |
| 2007 | New Mexico | MWC | 13 | 91 | 1,125 | 4 | 12.4 | 86.5 |
| 2012 | North Texas | Sun Belt | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.3 |
| 2013 | North Texas | CUSA | 5 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 15.8 | 19 |
| 2014 | North Texas | CUSA | 12 | 15 | 238 | 6 | 15.9 | 19.8 |
| 2015 | North Texas | CUSA | 12 | 29 | 261 | 0 | 9 | 21.8 |
| Career | 81 | 204 | 2,671 | 19 | 13.1 | 33.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
8%
ML model output
Context Prob
48%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
2.8 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.283
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.237
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.189
Top Negative Factors
-14.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.778
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.652
Physical production synergy-0.599