Player breakdown
Mark Clayton
Oklahoma · 2005 Draft Class
1st round, 22nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~44
EliteAll-American x1Did Not Hit
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | BAL | 14 | 10 | 86 | 44 | 471 | 10.7 | 2 | 33.6 |
| 2006 | BAL | 16 | 12 | 113 | 67 | 939 | 14 | 5 | 58.7 |
| 2007 | BAL | 16 | 12 | 89 | 48 | 531 | 11.1 | 0 | 33.2 |
| 2008 | BAL | 16 | 13 | 82 | 41 | 695 | 17 | 3 | 43.4 |
| 2009 | BAL | 14 | 12 | 74 | 34 | 480 | 14.1 | 2 | 34.3 |
| 2010 | STL | 5 | 5 | 42 | 23 | 306 | 13.3 | 2 | 61.2 |
| 2011 | STL | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 13 |
| Career | 83 | 65 | 490 | 260 | 3,448 | 13.3 | 14 | 41.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 12 | 45 | 519 | 3 | 11.5 | 43.3 |
| 2002 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 12 | 26 | 416 | 5 | 16 | 34.7 |
| 2003 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 14 | 83 | 1,425 | 15 | 17.2 | 101.8 |
| 2004 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 13 | 66 | 876 | 8 | 13.3 | 67.4 |
| Career | 51 | 220 | 3,236 | 31 | 14.7 | 63.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
16%
ML model output
Context Prob
67%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 11% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.167
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.227
0.61 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college+0.222
Top Negative Factors
+0.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.683
Physical production synergy-0.584
Improvement accelerating (+1.8) — getting better faster each year-0.378