Player breakdown
Matthew Coleman
San Jose State · 2026 Draft Class
6-0171 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~21
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
5%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | San Jose State | MWC | 12 | 12 | 119 | 0 | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| 2024 | San Jose State | MWC | 13 | 34 | 401 | 2 | 11.8 | 30.8 |
| 2025 | San Jose State | MWC | 10 | 20 | 131 | 1 | 6.6 | 13.1 |
| Career | 35 | 66 | 651 | 3 | 9.9 | 18.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.426
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 0.89x — route-running independent of system+0.232
9.4 avg YPR per season — average consistent efficiency+0.193
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 1% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.583
+0.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.515
Improvement accelerating (+2.4) — getting better faster each year-0.482