Player breakdown
Matthew Golden
Texas · 2025 Draft Class
5-11191 lbs1st round, 23rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~23
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
43%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | GNB | 14 | 5 | 44 | 29 | 361 | 12.4 | 0 | 25.8 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Houston | American | 11 | 38 | 584 | 7 | 15.4 | 53.1 |
| 2023 | Houston | Big 12 | 9 | 38 | 404 | 6 | 10.6 | 44.9 |
| 2024 | Texas | SEC | 16 | 58 | 987 | 9 | 17 | 61.7 |
| Career | 36 | 134 | 1,975 | 22 | 14.7 | 54.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
20%
ML model output
Context Prob
70%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
4
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 7% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+0.323
Class YPR rank: top 17% — elite per-target efficiency+0.243
0.56 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college+0.225
Top Negative Factors
+7.3 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.762
Physical production synergy-0.528
Accounted for 1.83 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.414