Player breakdown
Nelson Agholor
USC · 2015 Draft Class
6-0198 lbs1st round, 20th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~33
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
64%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | PHI | 13 | 12 | 44 | 23 | 283 | 12.3 | 1 | 21.8 |
| 2016 | PHI | 15 | 14 | 69 | 36 | 365 | 10.1 | 2 | 24.3 |
| 2017 | PHI | 16 | 10 | 95 | 62 | 768 | 12.4 | 8 | 48 |
| 2018 | PHI | 16 | 16 | 97 | 64 | 736 | 11.5 | 4 | 46 |
| 2019 | PHI | 11 | 10 | 69 | 39 | 363 | 9.3 | 3 | 33 |
| 2020 | LVR | 16 | 13 | 82 | 48 | 896 | 18.7 | 8 | 56 |
| 2021 | NWE | 15 | 13 | 64 | 37 | 473 | 12.8 | 3 | 31.5 |
| 2022 | NWE | 16 | 7 | 53 | 31 | 362 | 11.7 | 2 | 22.6 |
| 2023 | BAL | 17 | 3 | 45 | 35 | 381 | 10.9 | 4 | 22.4 |
| 2024 | BAL | 14 | 7 | 29 | 14 | 231 | 16.5 | 2 | 16.5 |
| Career | 149 | 105 | 647 | 389 | 4,858 | 12.5 | 37 | 32.6 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | USC | Pac-12 | 13 | 18 | 341 | 2 | 18.9 | 26.2 |
| 2013 | USC | Pac-12 | 14 | 56 | 918 | 6 | 16.4 | 65.6 |
| 2014 | USC | Pac-12 | 13 | 104 | 1,313 | 12 | 12.6 | 101 |
| Career | 40 | 178 | 2,572 | 20 | 14.4 | 64.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
21%
ML model output
Context Prob
92%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
5
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 29% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.077
BMI 26.9 — ideal frame for NFL WR (198 lbs)+0.235
Speed score 103.8 — strong weight-adjusted athleticism+0.153
Top Negative Factors
+9.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.655
Physical production synergy-0.504
Improvement accelerating (+2.9) — getting better faster each year-0.346