Player breakdown
Mike Matthews
Tennessee · 2026 Draft Class
6-1200 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~20
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
34%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Tennessee | SEC | 11 | 7 | 90 | 2 | 12.9 | 8.2 |
| 2025 | Tennessee | SEC | 13 | 53 | 813 | 4 | 15.3 | 62.5 |
| Career | 24 | 60 | 903 | 6 | 15.1 | 37.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
0%
ML model output
Context Prob
84%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
5
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
8.2 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.265
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.99 — elite recruit at elite school+0.196
Team averaged 0.0 pass attempts/game — run-heavy offensive system+0.191
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.263
Improvement accelerating (+8.0) — getting better faster each year-0.569
-16.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.569