Player breakdown
Nick Marsh
Michigan State · 2027 Draft Class
6-3203 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~20
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
22%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 11 | 41 | 649 | 3 | 15.8 | 59 |
| 2025 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 12 | 59 | 662 | 6 | 11.2 | 55.2 |
| Career | 23 | 100 | 1,311 | 9 | 13.1 | 57.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
60%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Improvement accelerating (+0.0) — getting better faster each year+0.756
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.93 — elite recruit at elite school+0.193
Team averaged 0.0 pass attempts/game — run-heavy offensive system+0.179
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.239
+1.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.533
Physical production synergy-0.352