Player breakdown
Niles Paul
Nebraska · 2011 Draft Class
6-1224 lbs5th round, 155th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~37
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
6%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | WAS | 13 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | 1.9 |
| 2012 | WAS | 16 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 152 | 19 | 1 | 9.5 |
| 2013 | WAS | 15 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 2016 | WAS | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 2018 | JAX | 6 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 98 | 9.8 | 0 | 16.3 |
| Career | 58 | 12 | 43 | 26 | 353 | 13.6 | 1 | 6.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Nebraska | Big 12 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0.9 |
| 2008 | Nebraska | Big 12 | 13 | 23 | 214 | 0 | 9.3 | 16.5 |
| 2009 | Nebraska | Big 12 | 14 | 40 | 796 | 4 | 19.9 | 56.9 |
| 2010 | Nebraska | Big 12 | 12 | 39 | 516 | 1 | 13.2 | 43 |
| Career | 46 | 103 | 1,532 | 5 | 14.9 | 33.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
0%
ML model output
Context Prob
38%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
0.9 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.274
BMI 29.6 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (224 lbs)+0.190
68.2 conference-adjusted ypg — SEC/Big Ten players penalized less than spread teams+0.137
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.418
-23.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.592
0.11 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.372