Player breakdown
Noah Rogers
North Carolina State · 2026 Draft Class
6-2205 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~20
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
31%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | North Carolina State | ACC | 13 | 35 | 478 | 1 | 13.7 | 36.8 |
| 2025 | North Carolina State | ACC | 13 | 33 | 441 | 2 | 13.4 | 33.9 |
| Career | 26 | 68 | 919 | 3 | 13.5 | 35.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
31%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.097
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.798
Recruit dominator synergy+0.502
Top Negative Factors
-20.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.738
0.12 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.484
Accounted for 1.22 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.377