Player breakdown
Octavian Smith Jr.
Maryland · 2026 Draft Class
6-0182 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~22
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
17%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Maryland | Big Ten | 13 | 12 | 157 | 2 | 13.1 | 12.1 |
| 2023 | Maryland | Big Ten | 13 | 22 | 209 | 1 | 9.5 | 16.1 |
| 2024 | Maryland | Big Ten | 11 | 30 | 315 | 2 | 10.5 | 28.6 |
| 2025 | Maryland | Big Ten | 12 | 43 | 529 | 0 | 12.3 | 44.1 |
| Career | 49 | 107 | 1,210 | 5 | 11.3 | 24.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
14%
ML model output
Context Prob
37%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 26% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.098
Recruit dominator synergy+0.503
Team averaged 0.0 pass attempts/game — run-heavy offensive system+0.194
Top Negative Factors
-27.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.740
Improvement accelerating (+2.4) — getting better faster each year-0.452
0.10 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.452