Player breakdown
Paul Williams
Fresno St. · 2007 Draft Class
6-1205 lbs3rd round, 80th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~42
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
13%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | TEN | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Fresno State | WAC | 7 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 6.7 | 2.9 |
| 2004 | Fresno State | WAC | 11 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 14 | 6.4 |
| 2005 | Fresno State | WAC | 13 | 43 | 729 | 7 | 17 | 56.1 |
| 2006 | Fresno State | WAC | 7 | 21 | 229 | 1 | 10.9 | 32.7 |
| Career | 38 | 72 | 1,048 | 8 | 14.6 | 27.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
9%
ML model output
Context Prob
38%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 12% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.236
Recruit dominator synergy+0.390
2.9 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.287
Top Negative Factors
-28.4 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.766
Physical production synergy-0.505
0.21 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.447