Player breakdown
Quintez Cephus
Wisconsin · 2020 Draft Class
6-1202 lbs5th round, 166th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
41%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | DET | 13 | 2 | 35 | 20 | 349 | 17.5 | 2 | 26.8 |
| 2021 | DET | 5 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 204 | 13.6 | 2 | 40.8 |
| 2022 | DET | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | 3.8 |
| Career | 22 | 6 | 60 | 37 | 568 | 15.4 | 4 | 25.8 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 14 | 4 | 94 | 0 | 23.5 | 6.7 |
| 2017 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 10 | 30 | 501 | 6 | 16.7 | 50.1 |
| 2019 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 14 | 59 | 901 | 7 | 15.3 | 64.4 |
| Career | 38 | 93 | 1,496 | 13 | 16.1 | 39.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
26%
ML model output
Context Prob
68%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.156
6.7 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.288
BMI 26.6 — ideal frame for NFL WR (202 lbs)+0.222
Top Negative Factors
-16.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.757
Physical production synergy-0.539
Improvement accelerating (+8.6) — getting better faster each year-0.496