Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Richie James
Richie James

Player breakdown

Richie James

Middle Tenn. St. · 2018 Draft Class

5-10183 lbs7th round, 240th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~31
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

35%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2018SFO13214913014.4110
2019SFO16110616527.5110.3
2020SFO117352339417.1135.8
2022NYG174705756910433.5
2023KAN91141011411.4012.7
Career66151431051,37213.1720.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2015Middle Tennessee StateCUSA131081,346812.5103.5
2016Middle Tennessee StateCUSA131051,6251215.5125
2017Middle Tennessee StateCUSA53129039.458
Career312443,2612313.4105.2

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

33%

ML model output

Context Prob

45%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

1

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

+53.0 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.286
Recruit dominator synergy+0.280
Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.274

Top Negative Factors

Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.603
Physical production synergy-0.503
0.09 TDs/catch — high-value usage pattern-0.231

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)