Player breakdown
Roman Wilson
Michigan · 2024 Draft Class
5-11185 lbs3rd round, 84th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~25
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
45%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | PIT | 13 | 4 | 21 | 12 | 166 | 13.8 | 2 | 12.8 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Michigan | Big Ten | 6 | 9 | 122 | 1 | 13.6 | 20.3 |
| 2021 | Michigan | Big Ten | 13 | 25 | 420 | 3 | 16.8 | 32.3 |
| 2022 | Michigan | Big Ten | 12 | 25 | 376 | 4 | 15 | 31.3 |
| 2023 | Michigan | Big Ten | 15 | 48 | 789 | 12 | 16.4 | 52.6 |
| Career | 46 | 107 | 1,707 | 20 | 16.0 | 37.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
12%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
6
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 15% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.177
BMI 25.8 — ideal frame for NFL WR (185 lbs)+0.203
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.90 — elite recruit at elite school+0.201
Top Negative Factors
-15.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.752
Improvement accelerating (+5.5) — getting better faster each year-0.458
Physical production synergy-0.371