Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Sammie Stroughter
Sammie Stroughter

Player breakdown

Sammie Stroughter

Oregon St. · 2009 Draft Class

5-9189 lbs7th round, 233rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~40
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

63%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2009TAM130603133410.8125.7
2010TAM124382423910019.9
2011TAM6074521308.7
2012TAM2021141407
Career3341076063910.7119.4
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2005Oregon StatePac-1011558011.65.3
2006Oregon StatePac-1014741,293517.592.4
2007Oregon StatePac-10315262217.587.3
2008Oregon StatePac-1013701,040714.980
Career411642,6531416.264.7

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

41%

ML model output

Context Prob

90%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

4

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Program WR pipeline: 26% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.212
5.3 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.247
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.222

Top Negative Factors

+10.3 ypg vs. draft class average — above average-0.708
Physical production synergy-0.597
Improvement accelerating (+21.3) — getting better faster each year-0.472

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)