Player breakdown
Shi Smith
South Carolina · 2021 Draft Class
5-10181 lbs6th round, 204th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
9%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | CAR | 6 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 104 | 17.3 | 0 | 17.3 |
| 2022 | CAR | 17 | 6 | 41 | 22 | 296 | 13.5 | 2 | 17.4 |
| Career | 23 | 6 | 52 | 28 | 400 | 14.3 | 2 | 17.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | South Carolina | SEC | 12 | 29 | 409 | 3 | 14.1 | 34.1 |
| 2018 | South Carolina | SEC | 12 | 45 | 673 | 4 | 15 | 56.1 |
| 2019 | South Carolina | SEC | 10 | 43 | 489 | 2 | 11.4 | 48.9 |
| 2020 | South Carolina | SEC | 9 | 57 | 633 | 4 | 11.1 | 70.3 |
| Career | 43 | 174 | 2,204 | 13 | 12.7 | 51.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
5%
ML model output
Context Prob
35%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 20% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.071
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.221
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.91 — elite recruit at elite school+0.205
Top Negative Factors
-0.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.733
Physical production synergy-0.551
0.30 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.387