Player breakdown
Sterling Shepard
Oklahoma · 2016 Draft Class
5-10194 lbs2nd round, 40th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~33
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
67%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | NYG | 16 | 16 | 105 | 65 | 683 | 10.5 | 8 | 42.7 |
| 2017 | NYG | 11 | 10 | 84 | 59 | 731 | 12.4 | 2 | 66.5 |
| 2018 | NYG | 16 | 16 | 107 | 66 | 872 | 13.2 | 4 | 54.5 |
| 2019 | NYG | 10 | 10 | 83 | 57 | 576 | 10.1 | 3 | 57.6 |
| 2020 | NYG | 12 | 12 | 90 | 66 | 656 | 9.9 | 3 | 54.7 |
| 2021 | NYG | 7 | 6 | 53 | 36 | 366 | 10.2 | 1 | 52.3 |
| 2022 | NYG | 3 | 2 | 24 | 13 | 154 | 11.8 | 1 | 51.3 |
| 2023 | NYG | 15 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 1 | 3.8 |
| 2024 | TAM | 14 | 5 | 51 | 32 | 334 | 10.4 | 1 | 23.9 |
| 2025 | TAM | 13 | 2 | 53 | 39 | 371 | 9.5 | 1 | 28.5 |
| Career | 117 | 81 | 672 | 443 | 4,800 | 10.8 | 25 | 41.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 13 | 45 | 621 | 3 | 13.8 | 47.8 |
| 2013 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 12 | 51 | 603 | 7 | 11.8 | 50.3 |
| 2014 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 12 | 51 | 970 | 5 | 19 | 80.8 |
| 2015 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 13 | 86 | 1,288 | 11 | 15 | 99.1 |
| Career | 50 | 233 | 3,482 | 26 | 14.9 | 69.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
65%
ML model output
Context Prob
70%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 11% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.245
BMI 27.8 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (194 lbs)+0.255
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.204
Top Negative Factors
Physical production synergy-0.628
Recruit dominator synergy-0.292
Improvement accelerating (+1.1) — getting better faster each year-0.285