Player breakdown
Steve Smith
USC · 2007 Draft Class
5-9184 lbs2nd round, 51st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~41
High1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
64%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | NYG | 5 | 0 | 14 | 8 | 63 | 7.9 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2008 | NYG | 16 | 4 | 82 | 57 | 574 | 10.1 | 1 | 35.9 |
| 2009 | NYG | 16 | 15 | 157 | 107 | 1,220 | 11.4 | 7 | 76.3 |
| 2010 | NYG | 9 | 7 | 75 | 48 | 529 | 11 | 3 | 58.8 |
| 2011 | PHI | 9 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 124 | 11.3 | 1 | 13.8 |
| 2012 | STL | 9 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 131 | 9.4 | 0 | 14.6 |
| Career | 64 | 29 | 373 | 245 | 2,641 | 10.8 | 12 | 41.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | USC | Pac-10 | 12 | 17 | 319 | 2 | 18.8 | 26.6 |
| 2004 | USC | Pac-10 | 8 | 42 | 660 | 6 | 15.7 | 82.5 |
| 2005 | USC | Pac-10 | 13 | 60 | 957 | 5 | 16 | 73.6 |
| 2006 | USC | Pac-10 | 13 | 71 | 1,083 | 9 | 15.3 | 83.3 |
| Career | 46 | 190 | 3,019 | 22 | 15.9 | 65.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
56%
ML model output
Context Prob
79%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 29% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.247
BMI 27.2 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (184 lbs)+0.242
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.218
Top Negative Factors
Physical production synergy-0.536
Improvement accelerating (+2.4) — getting better faster each year-0.354
Efficiency consistency: 1.18 — highly consistent across seasons-0.314