Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Tab Perry
Tab Perry

Player breakdown

Tab Perry

UCLA · 2005 Draft Class

6-2229 lbs6th round, 190th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~44
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

7%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2005CIN16054215.311.3
2006CIN20658116.2040.5
2007CIN21517703.5
Career201161010910.915.5
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2000UCLAPac-101065809.75.8
2001UCLAPac-10921416219.846.2
2002UCLAPac-101235698119.958.2
2004UCLAPac-10112237531734.1
Career42841,547618.436.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

1%

ML model output

Context Prob

43%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

2

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

5.8 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.284
Class YPR rank: top 19% — elite per-target efficiency+0.270
Recruit dominator synergy+0.224

Top Negative Factors

Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.385
-20.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.608
Improvement accelerating (+11.0) — getting better faster each year-0.446

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)