Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Terrence Murphy
Terrence Murphy

Player breakdown

Terrence Murphy

Texas A&M · 2005 Draft Class

6-1202 lbs2nd round, 58th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~43
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

64%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2005GNB30115367.2012
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2001Texas A&MBig 121136518314.447.1
2002Texas A&MBig 121136599416.654.5
2003Texas A&MBig 121244762017.363.5
2004Texas A&MBig 121156721312.965.5
Career451722,6001015.157.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

28%

ML model output

Context Prob

87%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

5

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Program WR pipeline: 14% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.237
Physical production synergy+0.417
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 0.92x — route-running independent of system+0.192

Top Negative Factors

+1.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.738
0.22 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.492
Efficiency composite: 0.58 — average combined efficiency-0.219

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)