Player breakdown
Tez Johnson
Oregon · 2025 Draft Class
5-10154 lbs7th round, 235th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~24
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
32%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | TAM | 16 | 8 | 44 | 28 | 322 | 11.5 | 5 | 20.1 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Troy | Sun Belt | 11 | 18 | 211 | 0 | 11.7 | 19.2 |
| 2021 | Troy | Sun Belt | 12 | 67 | 735 | 4 | 11 | 61.3 |
| 2022 | Troy | Sun Belt | 13 | 56 | 863 | 4 | 15.4 | 66.4 |
| 2023 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 14 | 86 | 1,182 | 10 | 13.7 | 84.4 |
| 2024 | Oregon | Big Ten | 12 | 83 | 898 | 10 | 10.8 | 74.8 |
| Career | 62 | 310 | 3,889 | 28 | 12.5 | 62.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
4%
ML model output
Context Prob
75%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
5
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.326
BMI 22.1 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (154 lbs)+0.187
+28.7 ypg vs. draft class average — above average+0.168
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.783
Improvement accelerating (+4.6) — getting better faster each year-0.391
Physical production synergy-0.288