Player breakdown
Todd Watkins
BYU · 2006 Draft Class
6-2202 lbs7th round, 218th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
69%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | OAK | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | OAK | 13 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 90 | 11.3 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Career | 21 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 90 | 11.3 | 0 | 4.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | BYU | MWC | 11 | 52 | 1,042 | 6 | 20 | 94.7 |
| 2005 | BYU | MWC | 12 | 49 | 678 | 9 | 13.8 | 56.5 |
| Career | 23 | 101 | 1,720 | 15 | 17.0 | 74.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
75%
ML model output
Context Prob
35%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 15% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.165
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.656
33.0% TD share at small school — strong red-zone role+0.330
Top Negative Factors
Physical production synergy-0.456
Accounted for 0.00 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.378
Efficiency consistency: 1.18 — highly consistent across seasons-0.276