Player breakdown
Toney Clemons
Colorado · 2012 Draft Class
6-3205 lbs7th round, 231st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~37
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
2%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | JAX | 4 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 41 | 13.7 | 0 | 10.3 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Michigan | Big Ten | 9 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.6 |
| 2008 | Michigan | Big Ten | 9 | 11 | 101 | 0 | 9.2 | 11.2 |
| 2010 | Colorado | Big 12 | 12 | 43 | 482 | 3 | 11.2 | 40.2 |
| 2011 | Colorado | Pac-12 | 13 | 43 | 680 | 8 | 15.8 | 52.3 |
| Career | 43 | 98 | 1,268 | 11 | 12.9 | 29.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.85 — elite recruit at elite school+0.172
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 0.39x — route-running independent of system+0.165
62.8 conference-adjusted ypg — SEC/Big Ten players penalized less than spread teams+0.144
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.461
-9.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.538
Improvement accelerating (+135.0) — getting better faster each year-0.526