Player breakdown
Tony Lippett
Michigan St. · 2015 Draft Class
6-2192 lbs5th round, 156th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~34
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
11%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 14 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 11 | 3.1 |
| 2012 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 13 | 36 | 392 | 2 | 10.9 | 30.2 |
| 2013 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 12 | 44 | 613 | 2 | 13.9 | 51.1 |
| 2014 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 13 | 65 | 1,198 | 11 | 18.4 | 92.2 |
| Career | 52 | 149 | 2,247 | 15 | 15.1 | 43.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
65%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
3.1 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.261
BMI 24.6 — ideal frame for NFL WR (192 lbs)+0.218
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.86 — elite recruit at elite school+0.186
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.373
-11.2 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.547
Improvement accelerating (+26.2) — getting better faster each year-0.475