Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Travis Fulgham
Travis Fulgham

Player breakdown

Travis Fulgham

Old Dominion · 2019 Draft Class

6-2215 lbs6th round, 184th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~30
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

12%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2019DET30300000
2020PHI138673853914.2441.5
Career168703853914.2433.7
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2015Old DominionCUSA10689014.88.9
2016Old DominionCUSA1329478816.536.8
2017Old DominionCUSA1230394113.132.8
2018Old DominionCUSA12631,083917.290.3
Career471282,0441816.043.5

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

3%

ML model output

Context Prob

59%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

2

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

BMI 27.6 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (215 lbs)+0.205
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.191
16.0 career YPR — strong efficiency+0.157

Top Negative Factors

-12.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.773
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.674
Improvement accelerating (+11.2) — getting better faster each year-0.479

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)