Player breakdown
Treylon Burks
Arkansas · 2022 Draft Class
6-3225 lbs1st round, 18th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~26
HighAll-Conference x1Did Not Hit
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
58%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | TEN | 11 | 6 | 54 | 33 | 444 | 13.5 | 1 | 40.4 |
| 2023 | TEN | 11 | 9 | 30 | 16 | 221 | 13.8 | 0 | 20.1 |
| 2024 | TEN | 5 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 | 6.8 |
| 2025 | WAS | 8 | 3 | 22 | 10 | 130 | 13 | 1 | 16.3 |
| Career | 35 | 20 | 114 | 63 | 829 | 13.2 | 2 | 23.7 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Arkansas | SEC | 11 | 29 | 475 | 0 | 16.4 | 43.2 |
| 2020 | Arkansas | SEC | 9 | 51 | 820 | 7 | 16.1 | 91.1 |
| 2021 | Arkansas | SEC | 12 | 66 | 1,104 | 11 | 16.7 | 92 |
| Career | 32 | 146 | 2,399 | 18 | 16.4 | 75.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
15%
ML model output
Context Prob
57%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
BMI 28.1 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (225 lbs)+0.249
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.95 — elite recruit at elite school+0.201
Class YPR rank: top 20% — elite per-target efficiency+0.193
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.616
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.441
Improvement accelerating (+1.3) — getting better faster each year-0.309