Player breakdown
Tristian Gardner
Missouri State · 2028 Draft Class
Undrafted / UpcomingAge: ~19
Medium
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
44%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Missouri State | CUSA | 12 | 30 | 465 | 6 | 15.5 | 38.8 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
45%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.875
Recruit dominator synergy+0.468
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.253
Top Negative Factors
+0.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.753
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.545
Accounted for 0.00 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.352