Player breakdown
Tyler Johnson
Minnesota · 2020 Draft Class
6-1206 lbs5th round, 161st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
EliteDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
84%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | TAM | 14 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 169 | 14.1 | 2 | 12.1 |
| 2021 | TAM | 17 | 3 | 55 | 36 | 360 | 10 | 0 | 21.2 |
| 2023 | LAR | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 2024 | LAR | 15 | 2 | 41 | 26 | 291 | 11.2 | 1 | 19.4 |
| 2025 | NYJ | 12 | 5 | 18 | 12 | 197 | 16.4 | 1 | 16.4 |
| Career | 59 | 13 | 134 | 88 | 1,025 | 11.6 | 5 | 17.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 13 | 14 | 141 | 1 | 10.1 | 10.8 |
| 2017 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 10 | 35 | 677 | 7 | 19.3 | 67.7 |
| 2018 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 13 | 78 | 1,169 | 12 | 15 | 89.9 |
| 2019 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 11 | 72 | 1,107 | 10 | 15.4 | 100.6 |
| 2025 | East Carolina | American | 11 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 10.3 | 6.5 |
| Career | 58 | 206 | 3,166 | 30 | 15.4 | 54.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
87%
ML model output
Context Prob
65%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 13% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.225
Physical production synergy+0.453
37.0% TD share at small school — strong red-zone role+0.265
Top Negative Factors
+9.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.664
Improvement accelerating (+7.3) — getting better faster each year-0.470
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.413