Player breakdown
Zay Flowers
Boston Col. · 2023 Draft Class
5-9182 lbs1st round, 22nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
Low1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
29%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | BAL | 16 | 16 | 108 | 77 | 858 | 11.1 | 5 | 53.6 |
| 2024 | BAL | 17 | 15 | 116 | 74 | 1,059 | 14.3 | 4 | 62.3 |
| 2025 | BAL | 17 | 17 | 118 | 86 | 1,211 | 14.1 | 5 | 71.2 |
| Career | 50 | 48 | 342 | 237 | 3,128 | 13.2 | 14 | 62.6 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Boston College | ACC | 13 | 22 | 341 | 3 | 15.5 | 26.2 |
| 2020 | Boston College | ACC | 11 | 56 | 892 | 9 | 15.9 | 81.1 |
| 2021 | Boston College | ACC | 12 | 44 | 746 | 5 | 17 | 62.2 |
| 2022 | Boston College | ACC | 12 | 78 | 1,077 | 12 | 13.8 | 89.8 |
| Career | 48 | 200 | 3,056 | 29 | 15.3 | 63.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
22%
ML model output
Context Prob
69%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
37.0% TD share at small school — strong red-zone role+0.321
Physical production synergy+0.281
BMI 26.9 — ideal frame for NFL WR (182 lbs)+0.243
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.637
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.380
+11.5 ypg vs. draft class average — above average-0.290